CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-07-01T21:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-07-01T21:12ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47248/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the North by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-07-02T00:06Z, following a data gap which ended at 2026-07-01T23:54Z. This CME is also seen to the North in SOHO LASCO C3 and to the Northeast in STEREO A COR2 following a data gap which ended at 2026-07-02T00:08Z. This CME is obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1. The source of this event is an M3.5 flare from Active Region 14479 (N15W32) which peaked at 2026-07-01T19:43Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. Field line opening and post eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193 and GOES SUVI 284. Preliminarily closing as non-arrival; analysis is ongoing. | Arrival signature: Characterized by a reconfiguration of magnetic field components and other solar wind parameters beginning most clearly at 2026-07-04T12:00Z, following an enhancement from the previous interplanetary shock at 2026-07-03T11:17Z and CME arrival at 2026-07-03T18:45Z. At this start time, solar wind speeds jump from ~590 km/s to ~640 km/s and density rises from ~0.68p/cc to ~24.81p/cc. Starting at 2026-07-04T11:37Z a rise in temperature from ~65k Kelvin to ~441k Kelvin is observed. Starting around 2026-07-04T12:30Z, B_total temporarily drops from ~14nT to ~9.47nT, rising back to a peak 19.43nT by 2026-07-04T14:06Z. This third enhancement in the solar wind within this arrival signature starting at 2026-07-03T11:17Z is associated with the likely combined arrival of CMEs 2026-07-02T02:36Z and 2026-07-01T21:12Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-04T12:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.33
Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-05T13:58Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a4b1 Ejecta settings d4t1x1 WSA version: 2.2 GONG: mrzqs ## Summary: Update on CMEs with IDs 2026-07-01T12:12:00-CME-001 and 2026-07-01T21:12:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe, BepiColombo (glancing blow), Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Juice (glof the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-03T18:46Z and Juice at 2026-07-06T14:00Z, and the flank may reach BepiColombo at 2026-07-03T14:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-07-08T00:00Z, Juice at 2026-07-06T14:00Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-06T20:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-07-05T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-07-05T13:58Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor). Updated CME parameters are: 1: Start time of the event: 2026-07-01T12:12Z. Estimated speed: ~372 km/s. Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg. Direction (lon./lat.): 33/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates. Activity ID: 2026-07-01T12:12:00-CME-001 2: Start time of the event: 2026-07-01T21:12Z. Estimated speed: ~617 km/s. Estimated opening half-angle: 22 deg. Direction (lon./lat.): 3/29 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates. Activity ID: 2026-07-01T21:12:00-CME-001 ## Notes: The CME event with ID 2026-07-01T12:12:00-CME-001 is associated with M1.0 flare from AR 14479 (N13W33) with ID 2026-07-01T10:54:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-07-01T11:25Z, while the CME event with ID 2026-07-01T21:12:00-CME-001 is associated with M3.5 flare from AR 14479 (N13W33) with ID 2026-07-01T19:35:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-07-01T19:43Z. SCORE CME typification system: S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s C-type: Common 500-999 km/s O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/sLead Time: 57.60 hour(s)
Difference: -25.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-02T02:24Z
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